A Trial to Find and Investigate a Safe Dose of BI 836858 in Combination With Decitabine for Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaamlphase iito determineprior treatment
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsinvestigatemaleefficacyof bi
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 390 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase I/IIa Trial to Investigate BI 6727 (Volasertib) as Monotherapy or in Combination With Cytarabine in Acute Myeloid Leukaemia NCT00804856 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Intravenous (IV) Decitabine and Oral Bexarotene for Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (AML) NCT01001143 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• BI 811283 in Combination With Cytarabine in Previously Untreated AML Ineligible for Intensive Treatment NCT00632749 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• BI 836858 Dose Escalation in Patients With Refractory or Relapsed Acute Myeloid Leukemia and in Patients With AML in Complete Remission With High Risk to Relapse NCT01690624 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of DCLL9718S in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) or DCLL9718S in Combination With Azacitidine in Participants With Previously Untreated AML Unsuitable for Intensive Induction Chemotherapy NCT03298516 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.