YAZ, Oral Contraceptive Registration in China

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ovarianfailurediseasepregnancypurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyand safetysafety ofefficacy andthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 234 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• GA YAZ ACNE in China Phase III NCT00818519 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Inhibition of Ovulation of Two Oral Estrogen/Progestogen Regimens in Healthy, Young Females Over a Period of 3 Treatment Cycles NCT00631124 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Ovarian Follicular Activity and Hormone Levels for DR-102 Compared to Two 28-Day Oral Contraceptives NCT01291004 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study of the Contraceptive Efficacy and Safety of a NOMAC-E2 Combined Oral Contraceptive (COC)(P06448) NCT01656434 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials terminated
• E4/DRSP Endocrine Function, Metabolic Control and Hemostasis Study NCT02957630 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.