ALL2008 Protocol for Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Intermittent Versus Continuous PEG Asparaginase

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaacuteequalcancerchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: investigateefficacyadministrationdayweek
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 402 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Oncaspar® and Three Doses of Pegylated Recombinant Asparaginase in Adult Patients With Newly Diagnosed Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia NCT01251809 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Pegaspargase and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Younger Patients With Newly Diagnosed High-Risk Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (Closed to Accrual 4-22-2011) NCT00866307 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Methotrexate, Vincristine, Pegylated L-Asparaginase and Dexamethasone (MOAD) in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) Salvage NCT00905034 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Asparaginase Encapsulated in Erythrocytes for Patients With ALL and Hypersensitivity to PEG-asparaginase NCT03267030 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Two Asparaginase Preparations in Children With Previously Untreated Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia NCT00784017 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.