Asparaginase Encapsulated in Erythrocytes for Patients With ALL and Hypersensitivity to PEG-asparaginase

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatientstherapyulnleukemia
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyclinicalhistoryantiretroviralallergy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• GRASPA (Erythrocytes Encapsulating L-asparaginase) in Patients With Relapse of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT01518517 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• L-asparaginase Encapsulated in Red Blood Cells (Eryaspase) for Treatment of Adult Patients With ALL or LBL NCT01910428 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Erwinase for Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) (IND 104224) NCT00928200 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Confirmation and Pharmacokinetic Study of Pegcrisantaspase Administered as Intravenous (IV) Infusion in Children and Young Adults With Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) /Lymphoblastic Lymphoma (LBL). Following Hypersensitivity to Pegaspargase (Oncaspar) NCT02257684 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Erwinaze Administered Intravenously in Patients Who Had an Allergy to Frontline Asparaginase Therapy NCT01643408 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.