Erwinase for Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) (IND 104224)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2010-06-04, after 2009-04-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-06-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patients mustcellstrokeleukemiaprior
Phrases that lowered it: patients10dexamethasonemaleallergy -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 21 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 1 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15933 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 1 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 21 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 8 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 60942 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 15933 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- asparaginase, asparaginase erwinia chrysanthemi, cytarabine, dexamethasone, dexrazoxane, dobesilate, doxorubicin, methotrexate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pegaspargase and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT01005914 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
- Asparaginase Encapsulated in Erythrocytes for Patients With ALL and Hypersensitivity to PEG-asparaginase NCT03267030 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- L-asparaginase Encapsulated in Red Blood Cells (Eryaspase) for Treatment of Adult Patients With ALL or LBL NCT01910428 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Erwinaze Administered Intravenously in Patients Who Had an Allergy to Frontline Asparaginase Therapy NCT01643408 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- A Dose Confirmation and Pharmacokinetic Study of Pegcrisantaspase Administered as Intravenous (IV) Infusion in Children and Young Adults With Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) /Lymphoblastic Lymphoma (LBL). Following Hypersensitivity to Pegaspargase (Oncaspar) NCT02257684 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.