CpG 7909/Montanide ISA 720 With or Without Cyclophosphamide in Combination Either With NY-ESO-1-derived Peptides or the NY-ESO-1 Protein for NY-ESO-1-expressing Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationbrainstagechemotherapysubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: trialto evaluatehormonalevaluate themyeloma
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9612 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 2652 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of IMF-001 in Patients With Malignancies Expressing NY-ESO-1 NCT01234012 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Safety Study of a Helper Peptide Vaccine Plus Pembrolizumab NCT02515227 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Nous-PEV: a Novel Immunotherapy for Lung Cancer and Melanoma NCT04990479 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• A Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy Study of NC410 Plus Pembrolizumab in Participants With Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT05572684 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.