Safety Study of a Helper Peptide Vaccine Plus Pembrolizumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagemelanomasubjectscancercarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialparticipantsasthmaevaluate thewithin weeks
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3431 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Overcoming Primary Resistance to Immunotherapy in Metastatic Melanoma NCT05304546 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of TLR9 Agonist Vidutolimod (CMP-001) in Combination With Nivolumab vs. Nivolumab NCT04401995 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Advanced/Metastatic Acral Lentiginous Melanoma NCT02875132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab Effects on NK Cell Exhaustion in Melanoma (Merck NK-IIT) NCT03241927 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.