Study of TLR9 Agonist Vidutolimod (CMP-001) in Combination With Nivolumab vs. Nivolumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectmelanomasubjectsnivolumabipilimumab
  Phrases that lowered it: alfahcvhepatitisscreeningtrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 48069 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9371 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CMP-001 in Combo With Nivolumab in Stage IIIB/C/D Melanoma Patients With Clinically Apparent Lymph Node Disease NCT03618641 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Overcoming Primary Resistance to Immunotherapy in Metastatic Melanoma NCT05304546 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab Plus Relatlimab in Patients With Metastatic Uveal Melanoma NCT04552223 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Study of Oral Azacitidine (CC-486) in Combination With Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02816021 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Advanced Melanoma With MK-3475 and Peginterferon NCT02112032 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.