Trial of BI 6727 (Volasertib) Monotherapy and BI 6727 in Combination With Pemetrexed Compared to Pemetrexed Monotherapy in Advanced NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclccancercell lungsmall cellnon small
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationlinerelevantrelapsedthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 81 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BIBF 1120 in Combination With Pemetrexed in Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00979576 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Lume Lung 2 : BIBF 1120 Plus Pemetrexed Compared to Placebo Plus Pemetrexed in 2nd Line Nonsquamous NSCLC NCT00806819 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed or Docetaxel With or Without Erlotinib in Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00660816 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189) NCT02578680 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Single-arm Trial of BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) in Demographically and Genotypically Selected NSCLC Patients NCT00730925 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.