Lume Lung 2 : BIBF 1120 Plus Pemetrexed Compared to Placebo Plus Pemetrexed in 2nd Line Nonsquamous NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstagensclcsmalllung cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: trialand safetyinadequateto investigateinvestigate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BIBF 1120 in Combination With Pemetrexed in Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00979576 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Trial of BI 6727 (Volasertib) Monotherapy and BI 6727 in Combination With Pemetrexed Compared to Pemetrexed Monotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT00824408 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• LUME-Lung 1: BIBF 1120 Plus Docetaxel as Compared to Placebo Plus Docetaxel in 2nd Line Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00805194 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• LUX-Lung 5: Afatinib Plus Weekly Paclitaxel Versus Investigator's Choice of Single Agent Chemotherapy Following Afatinib Monotherapy in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Failing Erlotinib or Gefitinib NCT01085136 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• BIBF 1120 + Docetaxel (Japan) in Patients With Advanced Non-small-cell Lung Cancer, Phase I NCT00876460 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.