TKI258 in Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-06-12, after 2010-04-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapyventricularprostatecoronary
Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantpatients whomultiplecopd -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 233 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 233 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 155 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Maximal Androgen Depletion Followed by Randomization of Maximal Androgen Ablation With Molecular Targeted Therapies NCT01254864 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Denosumab in Combination With Enzalutamide in Progressive Metastatic Castrate-resistant Prostate Cancer and Bone Metastases. NCT03869762 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- Study of Abiraterone Acetate Without Exogenous Glucocorticoids in Men With Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02025010 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Enzalutamide With Venetoclax in Treating Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03751436 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Pacritinib for Biochemical Relapse After Definitive Treatment for Prostate Cancer NCT04635059 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.