MTD, Safety, and Efficacy of Pomalidomide (CC-4047) Alone or With Low-dose Dexamethasone in Patients With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreaterthe patientto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: agreesigningto refrainrefrain frommyeloma
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11877 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Determine Efficacy and Safety of Lenalidomide Plus Low-dose Dexamethasone Versus Melphalan, Prednisone, Thalidomide in Patients With Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT00689936 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study of Decadron, Biaxin, and Pomalidomide in Relapsed/Refractory Myeloma NCT01159574 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone Versus Melphalan Prednisone and Lenalidomide Versus Cyclophosphamide, Prednisone and Lenalidomide in Elderly Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01093196 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Cyclophosphamide, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone (CRD) Versus Melphalan (200 mg/m2) Followed By Autologous Stem Cell Transplant (ASCT) In Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Subjects NCT01091831 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide/Bortezomib/Dexamethasone & CNTO 328 in Transplant Eligible Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT01531998 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.