Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone Versus Melphalan Prednisone and Lenalidomide Versus Cyclophosphamide, Prednisone and Lenalidomide in Elderly Multiple Myeloma Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hascellcarcinomathe subjecttherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyoraldays beforeefficacy andsafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cyclophosphamide, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone (CRD) Versus Melphalan (200 mg/m2) Followed By Autologous Stem Cell Transplant (ASCT) In Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Subjects NCT01091831 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Treatment Optimization in Patients With Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT02145598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Combination of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Treatment of Multiple Myeloma NCT01090089 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide Maintenance Therapy for Multiple Myeloma NCT01675141 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Study to Determine Efficacy and Safety of Lenalidomide Plus Low-dose Dexamethasone Versus Melphalan, Prednisone, Thalidomide in Patients With Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT00689936 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.