Combination of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Treatment of Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationcarcinomasubjectcellcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamgdexamethasonedrugplasma
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 19666 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone Versus Melphalan Prednisone and Lenalidomide Versus Cyclophosphamide, Prednisone and Lenalidomide in Elderly Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01093196 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide vs Placebo Maintenance Therapy Following Melphalan Prednisone Velcade® Induction Therapy in NDMM NCT02112175 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide/Low-dose Dexamethasone in Combination With Continuous Oral Cyclophosphamide Compared to Lenalidomide/Low-dose Dexamethasone Combined With Single Cyclophosphamide Doses IV in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01019174 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide & Adriamycin & Dexamethasone (RAD) in Newly Diagnosed, Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT02471820 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide/Bortezomib/Dexamethasone & CNTO 328 in Transplant Eligible Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT01531998 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.