Safety and Efficacy of Conivaptan in Hyponatremic Patients With Symptomatic Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (ADHF)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2009-08-31, after 2009-04-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectspastheartcoronarymyocardial
Phrases that lowered it: mmhgsafetydaysreceivedevaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 50% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- conivaptan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Targeting Acute Congestion With Tolvaptan in Congestive Heart Failure NCT01644331 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of CD-NP in the Treatment of Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT00839007 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled Study of the Short Term Clinical Effects of Tolvaptan in Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Heart Failure With Challenging Volume Management NCT01584557 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Study BAY1753011 in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure NCT03901729 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists (MRA) in Heart Failure (HF) and Loop Diuretic Resistance NCT02585843 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.