A Trial to Study BAY1753011 in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainplacebo controlledacuteadmissionto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: mgserumpatientsdaysurgery
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 839 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33109 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists (MRA) in Heart Failure (HF) and Loop Diuretic Resistance NCT02585843 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Phase IIb Safety and Efficacy Study of Different Oral Doses of BAY94-8862 in Subjects With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction and Either Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With or Without Chronic Kidney Disease or Chronic Kidney Disease Alone NCT01807221 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Determining Optimal Dose and Duration of Diuretic Treatment in People With Acute Heart Failure (The DOSE-AHF Study) NCT00577135 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 in Japanese Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02468232 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Sub-Q Versus IV Furosemide in Acute Heart Failure NCT02579057 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.