Comparison Study of PTHrP and PTH to Treat Osteoporosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-06-30, after 2009-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: greateror equalequal todosespost
Phrases that lowered it: abnormalcomparisonosteoporosis20body -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 18528 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 151 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 79 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18528 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2191 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 52.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- parathyroid hormone, teriparatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Oral Doses of PTH134 in Post-menopausal Women NCT01224717 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of PTH Analog Tablets in Postmenopausal Women NCT01321723 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Forteo for the Treatment of Unexplained Osteoporosis in Premenopausal Women NCT00697463 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Six-month Phase 2 Study of Oral hPTH(1-34) (EBP05) in Postmenopausal Women With Low Bone Mass NCT04003467 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Forteo Trial on Idiopathic Osteoporosis in Premenopausal Women NCT01440803 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.