Forteo for the Treatment of Unexplained Osteoporosis in Premenopausal Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (48 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-01-03, after 2008-08-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bonecarcinomaneckeligiblecell
Phrases that lowered it: healthyuse ofdensitydisordershistory -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 48.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 48 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 29 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 40 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16797 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2105 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 48.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- parathyroid hormone, teriparatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Forteo Trial on Idiopathic Osteoporosis in Premenopausal Women NCT01440803 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Denosumab for Prevention of Post-Teriparatide Bone Loss in Premenopausal Women With IOP NCT02049866 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Denosumab, Teriparatide or Both for the Treatment of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis NCT00926380 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Bisphosphonates for Prevention of Post-Denosumab Bone Loss NCT03396315 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- PTH & Ibandronate Combination Study (PICS) NCT00683163 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.