Vitamin D3 for Aromatase Inhibitor Induced Arthralgias

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerstagemetastaticbreastchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatetrial torandomizedvitamin
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vitamin D3 Effects on Musculoskeletal Symptoms With Use of Aromatase Inhibitors NCT01509079 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• High Dose Vitamin D vs Standard Dose Vitamin D Study NCT01988090 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Placebo-controlled Trial With Vitamin D to Prevent Worsening/Relieve Aromatase Inhibitor-induced Musculoskeletal Symptoms in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01809171 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Ph I/II of Vitamin D on Bone Mineral Density & Markers of Bone Resorption NCT00904423 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Feasibility and Efficacy of Vitamin D Supplementation in Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer (SAFE-D) NCT02186015 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.