Safety, Feasibility and Efficacy of Vitamin D Supplementation in Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer (SAFE-D)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticstagebreastserum
  Phrases that lowered it: safetyclinicalparticipantsto investigateevaluate the
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 100417 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20987 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ph I/II of Vitamin D on Bone Mineral Density & Markers of Bone Resorption NCT00904423 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Development of Vitamin D as a Therapy for Breast Cancer - Phase 2 NCT00656019 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Study of Vitamin D Supplementation Tailored to Vitamin D Deficiency in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01480869 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Vitamin D in Postmenopausal Women at High Risk for Breast Cancer NCT00859651 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Vitamin D3 for Aromatase Inhibitor Induced Arthralgias NCT00867217 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.