Capecitabine and Bevacizumab ± Vinorelbine in Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-10-31, after 2009-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationmetastatickeyrecurrentchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: breast cancercombinationher2openapplied -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 16632 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16632 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5514 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, capecitabine, vinorelbine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Randomized Study to Determine the Efficacy of a Taxane and Bevacizumab With or Without Capecitabine as First Line Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01200212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
- Dose Finding Study for Combination of Capecitabine, Lapatinib and Vinorelbine in Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01238029 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- MEtronomic TrEatment Option in Advanced bReast cAncer NCT02954055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Metronomic Therapy in Metastatic Breast Cancer. NCT01131195 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- the Role of Two Different Metronomic Chemotherapy Regimens in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients (TNBC) as Maintenance Therapy After First Line Treatment NCT03358004 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.