MEtronomic TrEatment Option in Advanced bReast cAncer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastatic breasterstage
  Phrases that lowered it: trialaccordinggrowthskinline
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 24051 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 142316 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Trial Comparing Capecitabine in Combination With Sorafenib or Placebo in the Treatment of Locally Advanced or Metastatic HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01234337 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Metronomic Treatment With Daily Oral Vinorelbine as First-line Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Breast Cancer NCT03007992 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• 8 Continuous vs 8 Intermittent Cycles in First and Second Line in HER2/Neu Neg Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01935492 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Eribulin Plus Gemcitabine (EG) vs Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine (PG) in HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02263495 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Lapatinib in Combination With Vinorelbine NCT01128543 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.