Metronomic Treatment With Daily Oral Vinorelbine as First-line Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 35% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2registrationchemotherapylong
  Phrases that lowered it: linescreeninglivercarcinomamale
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3933 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 29 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MEtronomic TrEatment Option in Advanced bReast cAncer NCT02954055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare Vinorelbine In Combination With the mTOR Inhibitor Everolimus vs. Vinorelbin Monotherapy for Second-line Treatment in Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01520103 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Open Study of Metronomic Oral Vinorelbine in Combination With Aromatase Inhibitors for the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive,HER2-negative, Advanced Breast Cancer Who Received no Prior Therapy for Advanced Disease NCT02730091 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Lapatinib in Combination With Vinorelbine NCT01128543 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of Vinflunine Plus Capecitabine Versus Capecitabine Alone in Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01953003 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.