Study to Compare Vinorelbine In Combination With the mTOR Inhibitor Everolimus vs. Vinorelbin Monotherapy for Second-line Treatment in Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerfunctionher2cardiacthe patient
  Phrases that lowered it: chronictreatmentstartkidneydialysis
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Metronomic Treatment With Daily Oral Vinorelbine as First-line Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Breast Cancer NCT03007992 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Open Study of Metronomic Oral Vinorelbine in Combination With Aromatase Inhibitors for the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive,HER2-negative, Advanced Breast Cancer Who Received no Prior Therapy for Advanced Disease NCT02730091 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Oral Vinorelbine in Combination With Trastuzumab for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01242449 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Lapatinib in Combination With Vinorelbine NCT01128543 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Vinorelbine Plus Apatinib Versus Vinorelbine in Advanced Triple-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03254654 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.