Vinorelbine Plus Apatinib Versus Vinorelbine in Advanced Triple-Negative Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-08-01, after 2017-08-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: brainsolidadvancedcancerradiation
Phrases that lowered it: linepatientshepaticsevereaccording -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4281 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 61 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 57 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4281 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 538 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apatinib, vinorelbine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Compare Vinorelbine In Combination With the mTOR Inhibitor Everolimus vs. Vinorelbin Monotherapy for Second-line Treatment in Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01520103 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Capecitabine and Bevacizumab ± Vinorelbine in Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00868634 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Study of Apatinib in Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients NCT01176669 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Oral Vinorelbine in Combination With Trastuzumab for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01242449 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- MEtronomic TrEatment Option in Advanced bReast cAncer NCT02954055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.