Study of Apatinib in Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 34% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-09-30, after 2010-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartcancercarcinomaradiationfailure
Phrases that lowered it: accordingclinicaloral administrationlesionsgrowth -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 13 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 23.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 39 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Apatinib in Non-triple-negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01653561 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Low-dose Apatinib Combined With Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in the Treatment of Early Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03243838 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Multicenter Phase II Study of Apatinib in Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer(CABC006) NCT02878057 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Toxicities of PLX038, in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT06162351 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Vinorelbine Plus Apatinib Versus Vinorelbine in Advanced Triple-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03254654 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.