8 Continuous vs 8 Intermittent Cycles in First and Second Line in HER2/Neu Neg Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancerbreastpriorlocally advanced
  Phrases that lowered it: openbleedinghistorywithin monthshypertension
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9304 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed After Taxanes Treatment. NCT01050322 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• MEtronomic TrEatment Option in Advanced bReast cAncer NCT02954055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Phase III Trial Comparing Capecitabine in Combination With Sorafenib or Placebo in the Treatment of Locally Advanced or Metastatic HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01234337 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Metronomic Therapy in Metastatic Breast Cancer. NCT01131195 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Eribulin Plus Gemcitabine (EG) vs Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine (PG) in HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02263495 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.