Eribulin Plus Gemcitabine (EG) vs Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine (PG) in HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerrecurrentcarcinoma ofmetastaticmarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: phase iiirandomizedgroupetcompared
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 29025 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MEtronomic TrEatment Option in Advanced bReast cAncer NCT02954055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Safety Study in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed After Taxanes Treatment. NCT01050322 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Monotherapy With Eribulin In Her2 Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer as a First Line Treatment NCT02061085 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• 8 Continuous vs 8 Intermittent Cycles in First and Second Line in HER2/Neu Neg Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01935492 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerability of Eribulin Plus Lapatinib in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer (E-VITA) NCT01534455 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.