A Study of Adalimumab in Japanese Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboonsetsubjectsprogressionacute
  Phrases that lowered it: japaneselymphomareceptorjointarthritis
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of Adalimumab in Japanese Children With Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00690573 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Effects of Different Doses of Methotrexate (MTX) When Taken With Adalimumab in Subjects With Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT01185301 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of ABP 501 Compared to Adalimumab in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01970475 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are on a Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) and Have an Inadequate Response to csDMARDs NCT02720523 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Investigating Clinical Efficacy of Ofatumumab in Adult Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Patients Who Had an Inadequate Response to TNF-α Antagonist Therapy NCT00603525 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.