A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are on a Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) and Have an Inadequate Response to csDMARDs

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasdiagnosis ofdiseaseactiveonset
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsarthritisrarheumatoiddrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study With Upadacitinib (ABT-494) in Subjects From China and Selected Countries With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) NCT02955212 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis on a Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) Who Have an Inadequate Response to csDMARDs Alone NCT02675426 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) With an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Biologic DMARDs NCT02706847 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Monotherapy to Methotrexate (MTX) Monotherapy in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have Not Previously Taken Methotrexate NCT02706873 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Compare Upadacitinib to Abatacept in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease- Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) Who Have an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Biologic DMARDs NCT03086343 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.