Study Evaluating The Effects Of Neratinib After Adjuvant Trastuzumab In Women With Early Stage Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerstagetreatedadjuvantrecurrence
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatebreast cancerpositivehistory45
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Evaluating Neratinib Plus Paclitaxel VS Trastuzumab Plus Paclitaxel In ErbB-2 Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00915018 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Neratinib Versus Lapatinib Plus Capecitabine For ErbB2 Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00777101 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Study of Neratinib Plus Capecitabine Versus Lapatinib Plus Capecitabine in Patients With HER2+ Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Received Two or More Prior HER2 Directed Regimens in the Metastatic Setting NCT01808573 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• LUX-Breast 2; Afatinib in HER2 (Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor)-Treatment Failures NCT01271725 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pertuzumab in Addition to Chemotherapy and Trastuzumab as Adjuvant Therapy in Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Primary Breast Cancer NCT01358877 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.