Selumetinib in Cancers With BRAF Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellcancersheartmalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: multipleacidaccordingclinical trialindividuals
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 211 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 308 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intermittent Selumetinib for Uveal Melanoma NCT02768766 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib and Akt Inhibitor MK2206 in Treating Patients With Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma Who Failed Prior Therapy With Vemurafenib or Dabrafenib NCT01519427 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Study of MK-8353 + Selumetinib in Advanced/Metastatic Solid Tumors (MK-8353-014) NCT03745989 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib in Treating Patients With Neurofibromatosis Type 1 and Cutaneous Neurofibroma NCT02839720 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib, Cetuximab, and Irinotecan Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Solid Tumors That Are Metastatic or That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT01787500 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.