Selumetinib in Treating Patients With Neurofibromatosis Type 1 and Cutaneous Neurofibroma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 37% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-08-31, after 2017-08-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ventricularlongheartbowelqt
Phrases that lowered it: this trialgrowthsorafenibreceivedpressure -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 159 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1124 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 159 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 93 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydrogen, selumetinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial of Selumetinib in Patients With Neurofibromatosis Type II Related Tumors NCT03095248 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Selumetinib Sulfate in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer With KRAS G12R Mutations NCT03040986 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Intermittent Dosing Of Selumetinib In Childhood NF1 Associated Tumours NCT03326388 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Intermittent Selumetinib for Uveal Melanoma NCT02768766 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Selumetinib in Patients Receiving Pemetrexed and Platinum-based Chemotherapy in Advanced or Metastatic KRAS Wildtype or Unknown Non-Squamous NSCLC NCT02337530 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.