Selumetinib in Patients Receiving Pemetrexed and Platinum-based Chemotherapy in Advanced or Metastatic KRAS Wildtype or Unknown Non-Squamous NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationpatients mustheartpriorcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: japanesemmsystemicpresencekras
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7226 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Selumetinib in Patients With Previously Treated or Untreated Advanced/Metastatic NSCLC NCT01783197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib and Paclitaxel as Second-Line Treatment in Treating Patients With Stage IIIB-IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02503358 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib Sulfate in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer With KRAS G12R Mutations NCT03040986 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib (AZD6244, ARRY-142886) J-BTC Phase 1 Study NCT01949870 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• Durvalumab, Tremelimumab, and Selumetinib in Treating Participants With Recurrent or Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03581487 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.