Study of Selumetinib in Patients With Previously Treated or Untreated Advanced/Metastatic NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustqtchemotherapywomenheart
  Phrases that lowered it: participantssingleadvancedtrialdays
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Selumetinib in Patients Receiving Pemetrexed and Platinum-based Chemotherapy in Advanced or Metastatic KRAS Wildtype or Unknown Non-Squamous NSCLC NCT02337530 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib and Paclitaxel as Second-Line Treatment in Treating Patients With Stage IIIB-IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02503358 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Phase I/Ib Study of MEK162, a MEK Inhibitor, in Combination With Carboplatin and Pemetrexed in Patients With Non-squamous Carcinoma of the Lung NCT02185690 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Trial of Vandetanib (AZD6474) and Selumetinib (AZD6244) for Solid Tumours Including Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (VanSel-1) NCT01586624 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Phase I Dose-Escalation Study of AZD4785 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT03101839 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.