A Phase I Trial of Vandetanib (AZD6474) and Selumetinib (AZD6244) for Solid Tumours Including Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (VanSel-1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcellventricularnsclcrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: weekssolidclinical trialdayhepatitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 155 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Escalation Study Investigating Everolimus and Dovitinib in Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cancer NCT01714765 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Study of Selumetinib in Patients With Previously Treated or Untreated Advanced/Metastatic NSCLC NCT01783197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Phase III Sequential Open-label Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Sorafenib Followed by Pazopanib Versus Pazopanib Followed by Sorafenib in the Treatment of Advanced / Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (SWITCH-II) NCT01613846 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Volitinib in Combination With Gefitinib in EGFR(+) NSCLC NCT02374645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Phase I/Ib Study of MEK162, a MEK Inhibitor, in Combination With Carboplatin and Pemetrexed in Patients With Non-squamous Carcinoma of the Lung NCT02185690 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.