A Phase I/Ib Study of MEK162, a MEK Inhibitor, in Combination With Carboplatin and Pemetrexed in Patients With Non-squamous Carcinoma of the Lung

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcoronarycarcinomasquamousstage
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsuppernormallimit ofthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 298 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6337 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Selumetinib in Patients With Previously Treated or Untreated Advanced/Metastatic NSCLC NCT01783197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Binimetinib for Patients With Advanced KRAS Mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03170206 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib Plus Chemotherapy in Uncommon EGFRm NSCLC NCT05215951 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Study of Selective BRAF Kinase Inhibitor Dabrafenib Monotherapy Twice Daily and in Combination With Dabrafenib Twice Daily and Trametinib Once Daily in Combination Therapy in Subjects With BRAF V600E Mutation Positive Metastatic (Stage IV) Non-small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT01336634 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Trial of AMG 479, Everolimus (RAD001) and Panitumumab in Patients With Advanced Cancer - QUILT-3.007 NCT01061788 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.