OC000459 Dose Finding Study in Patients With Mild to Moderate Persistent Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientslevels12 monthsplacebo controlledprior
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateasthmamildmaleonce daily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AZD5069 in Patients With Uncontrolled Persistent Asthma. NCT01704495 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of ADC3680 in Subjects With Inadequately-Controlled Asthma NCT01730027 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Effect of OC000459 on Eosinophilic Airway Inflammation in Severe Asthma NCT02560610 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Investigation of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Once and Twice Daily Doses of AZD1981 in Asthmatic Patients NCT01197794 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Different Dosings of Olodaterol Administered With the Respimat® Inhaler in Patients With Moderate to Severe Asthma NCT01311661 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.