Pemetrexed (ALIMTA) Plus Cisplatin Followed by Surgery and Radiation Therapy for Mesothelioma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 37% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-10-31, after 2009-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationpatients mustpatienttumorresection
Phrases that lowered it: maledexamethasonefemalesystemicreceived -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 59 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 59 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 60 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9581 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2145 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Pilot Window-Of-Opportunity Study of the Anti-PD-1 Antibody Pembrolizumab in Patients With Resectable Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT02707666 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- Testing the Addition of Targeted Radiation Therapy to Surgery and the Usual Chemotherapy Treatment (Pemetrexed and Cisplatin [or Carboplatin]) for Stage I-IIIA Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT04158141 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Study of Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraoperative Chemotherapy With Pemetrexed and Cisplatin for MPM NCT02838745 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- Trimodal Lung-Sparing Treatment of Pleural Mesothelioma NCT00859495 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Pemetrexed Disodium/Observation in Treating Patients W/ Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma w/Out Progressive Disease After 1st Line Chemotherapy NCT01085630 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.