Testing the Addition of Targeted Radiation Therapy to Surgery and the Usual Chemotherapy Treatment (Pemetrexed and Cisplatin [or Carboplatin]) for Stage I-IIIA Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 66.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationpriorrandomizationpatients mustchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshiv infectedjointviral loadhcv
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 121013 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17316 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in the Treatment of Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT03048474 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab After Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Pleural Malignant Mesothelioma NCT02959463 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed (ALIMTA) Plus Cisplatin Followed by Surgery and Radiation Therapy for Mesothelioma NCT00895648 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab in Patients With Recurrent Malignant Mesothelioma NCT02497508 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Window-Of-Opportunity Study of the Anti-PD-1 Antibody Pembrolizumab in Patients With Resectable Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT02707666 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.