Inflammation in Chronic Kidney Disease and Cardiovascular Disease - The Role of Genetics and Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist (IL-1ra)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-05-08, after 2013-01-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lymphomacell000stagetumor
Phrases that lowered it: the trialthe effectdrugsuse ofbmi -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 104 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 106 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rilonacept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial to Evaluate Reduction in Inflammation in Patients With Advanced Chronic Renal Disease Utilizing Antibody Mediated IL-6 Inhibition NCT03926117 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Metformin in Kidney Disease NCT02252081 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Chlorthalidone in Chronic Kidney Disease NCT02841280 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Exercise Intolerance in Renal Failure NCT01356966 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Hydroxychloroquine in Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: A Proof of Concept Study NCT01537315 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.