Trial to Evaluate Reduction in Inflammation in Patients With Advanced Chronic Renal Disease Utilizing Antibody Mediated IL-6 Inhibition

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: advancedmarrowcoronaryactivetransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: cardiovascularevaluatemedical historydrugmg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 677 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Evaluate Reduction in Inflammation in Patients With Advanced Chronic Renal Disease Utilizing Antibody Mediated IL-6 Inhibition in Japan. NCT04626505 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Research Study of How the Medicine Ziltivekimab Works in the Body of Chinese Men and Women With Kidney Disease and Inflammation NCT05379829 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of AZD4144 in Participants With Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular and Chronic Kidney Disease. NCT06675175 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Effect of Different Doses of Avenciguat (BI 685509) on Kidney Function in People With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04736628 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study of Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease to Assess the Safety of a Single Dose of COR-001 NCT03126318 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.