A Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled, Single, Escalating Dose Study to Evaluate the Preliminary Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of LNK-754 in Healthy Elderly Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityplacebo controlledblind placebogreaterinterval
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerspharmacokineticssingle doseto evaluate
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Design: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Escalating Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of LNK 754 in Elderly Volunteers and in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01013610 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of JNJ-42165279 in Healthy Young and Elderly Participants NCT01964651 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Assessing the Safety and Tolerability of a Single IV Dose of AZD9742 in Healthy Elderly Male and Female Subjects NCT01154621 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Safety/Tolerability of Increasing Doses of LNP1892 Versus Placebo in Healthy Male/Female Subjects NCT02174237 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of JNJ-40411813 in Male and Female Elderly Patients NCT01932333 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.