An Escalating Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of LNK 754 in Elderly Volunteers and in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersubjects withsafety tolerabilityin subjectsstable
  Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthyevaluate theto evaluatepharmacokinetics
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled, Single, Escalating Dose Study to Evaluate the Preliminary Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of LNK-754 in Healthy Elderly Volunteers NCT00903253 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of NDX-1017 NCT03298672 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Randomized SAD and MAD Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of RPh201 in Healthy Subjects and in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01513967 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01837641 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of BPN14770 in Healthy Young and Elderly Male or Female Subjects NCT02840279 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.