A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-08-24, after 2013-05-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: participantsradiationcarcinomaplacebocancer
Phrases that lowered it: healthysingle doseimpairmentmoderatemild -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 747 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 9 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 9 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 747 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 176 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Memory Damage Due to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or AD NCT02624778 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2599666 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT02614131 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY3372993 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT03720548 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3303560 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT02754830 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3372993 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and Healthy Participants NCT04451408 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.