A Study of LY2599666 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer's Disease (AD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-12-31, after 2015-12-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradtolerabilitycognitivelymphoma
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthyevaluateimpairmentbody -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 991 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 991 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 146 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 50% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- solanezumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01837641 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Memory Damage Due to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or AD NCT02624778 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3303560 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT02754830 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3303560 in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer's Disease NCT03019536 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3372993 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and Healthy Participants NCT04451408 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.