A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of BPN14770 in Healthy Young and Elderly Male or Female Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-31, after 2016-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cognitiveplacebotypepriorascending
Phrases that lowered it: healthypharmacokineticmmhgkgevaluate the -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 25 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Effects of BPN14770 on Scopolamine-induced Cognitive Impairment in Healthy Volunteers NCT03030105 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- BPN14770 Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Male and Female Subjects NCT02648672 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of SDI-118 in Elderly Male and Female Study Participants With Cognitive Decline NCT05199142 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of REM0045392 Compared With Placebo in Healthy Participants. NCT07016464 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.