Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerscoresubjectscognitivead
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate thethe trialrangeresults
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effects of BPN14770 on Scopolamine-induced Cognitive Impairment in Healthy Volunteers NCT03030105 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK239512 in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01009255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• ANAVEX2-73 for Treatment of Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT03790709 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of BPN14770 in Healthy Young and Elderly Male or Female Subjects NCT02840279 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2, Randomized, Prospective Double-Blind, Single-Center, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Target Engagement, and Efficacy of PrimeC in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease. NCT06185543 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.