Study to Evaluate the Effects of BPN14770 on Scopolamine-induced Cognitive Impairment in Healthy Volunteers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-06-30, after 2017-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: angleplacebo controlledtypesubjects mustblind placebo
Phrases that lowered it: screeninghealthydrugcrossover studykg -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19974 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3426 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- donepezil, scopolamine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of BPN14770 in Healthy Young and Elderly Male or Female Subjects NCT02840279 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Effects of Triglycerides on Age-Related Cognitive Function Decline in Older Subjects NCT01702480 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Roflumilast and Donepezil to Reverse Scopolamine Induced Cognitive Deficits in Healthy Adults NCT02051335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study of Clenbuterol (CST-103) Co-administered With Nadolol (CST-107) in Subjects With Neurodegenerative Disorders NCT04739423 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.