A Phase 2, Randomized, Prospective Double-Blind, Single-Center, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Target Engagement, and Efficacy of PrimeC in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientqtheartevidencestable
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressuredays beforebmithe studymm hg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Phase IIb, Multi-Center, Multinational, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study, With an Open Label Extension, to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of PrimeC in Subjects With ALS NCT05357950 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ia/Ib, First-in-human (FIH) Study for Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK), and Clinical Activity Evaluation of ADEL-Y01 NCT06247345 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Safety Study of a Glycogen Synthase Kinase 3 (GSK3) Inhibitor in Patients With Alzheimer´s Disease NCT00948259 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Dose-Finding Study To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of E2609 in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease) and Mild to Moderate Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT02322021 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.